Date Submitted:
03/18/2011 05:10 AM
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“Gordon Moore: I think Moore’s Law will continue as long as Moore does anyhow! Ha ha ha... I’m periodically amazed at how we’re able to make progress. Several times along the way, I thought we reached the end of the line, things taper off, and our creative engineers come up with ways around them.” (Excerpts)
Moore’s Law has been one of the very few self-fulfilling prophecies of all times. Though it appeared as only a theory, it has significantly influenced generations of microelectronics and information processing technology. It witnessed the amazing speed at which technology evolved in the past four decades, when its validity and interpretations have greatly expanded through the time. However, as is the case for any existing law, Moore’s law cannot expand forever. As information technology is becoming increasingly important in our society, it’s time to question Moore’s Law: what makes it survive for such a long time? To what range can it apply and how much longer can it survive?
To start with, let’s first take a brief look at Moore’s Law to discover what it is and what it is not.
In his widely-known article “Cramming more components onto integrated circuits”, Gordon Moore noted that the number of transistor per integrated circuit has doubled per year, and boldly predicted that this doubling rate would remain constant for at least 10 years (Moore). This observation, which was later proved to be remarkably accurate in describing the trends in electronics designing, is known as Moore’s Law.
Ever since then, numerous versions of the law have emerged. Because the performance of computing machines can be measured in transistors per integrated function, it can also be measured in many other ways.
Though some of the interpretations do make Moore’s Law clearer and easier to apply - such as the statement “the number of transistors that can be inexpensively placed on an integrated circuit is increasing exponentially, doubling approximately every two years”- many of them...

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